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Koľko viem zarobiť na AKCIOVOM INDEXE a čo to vlastne je?

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Koľko viem zarobiť na AKCIOVOM INDEXE a čo to vlastne je?

Akciový index je štatistickou veličinou, ktorá meria zmeny v portfóliu akcií reprezentujúcich časť celkového akciového trhu (niekedy aj celý trh). Investor sleduje vývoj indexov preto, aby vedel, akým smerom sa trhy rútia alebo naopak pokrivkávajú. Manažéri fondov sú často s rôznymi indexami porovnávaní. Stovky miliárd amerických dolárov sú investované do najrôznejších indexov. Pozrime sa v zjednodušenej forme, ako sa môžu tieto indexy konštruovať.

Nie je index ako index

Trhové indexy sú bežne zostavované dvomi základnými spôsobmi. Každý z týchto spôsobov má svoje špecifiká, a preto je dôležité poznať spôsob ich tvorby, aby bolo možné korektne interpretovať vývoj týchto indexov resp. stav na tom či onom trhu.

1) Podiel konkrétneho titulu na celkovom indexe je daný trhovou kapitalizáciou spoločnosti.
Toto vychádza z jednoduchej logiky, že väčšie spoločnosti by mali mať väčší podiel na trhovom indexe, pretože hospodárske výsledky týchto najväčších spoločností majú omnoho väčší vplyv na celkovú ekonomiku ako činnosť menších spoločností. Predstavme si fiktívny akciový trh, na ktorom sa obchodujú iba dva tituly: spoločnosť X a spoločnosť Y.

Spoločnosť X dala verejnosti k dispozícii 1000 akcií, tzn. že na verejných trhoch sa obchoduje s tisíckou akcií X, a súčasná trhová cena (kurz) 1 akcie je 100 dolárov. Potom trhová kapitalizácia spoločnosti X je 1000 (akcií) x 100 (trhová cena 1 akcie) = 100 000 dolárov. Na trhu sa ďalej bude obchodovať takisto s 20 000 akciami spoločnosti Y a následná trhová cena 1 akcie tejto spoločnosti bude 10 dolárov. Trhová kapitalizácia Y potom bude 20 000×10=200 000 dolárov. Celková trhová kapitalizácia nášho trhu potom bude 100 000+200 000=300 000 dolárov. Váhy jednotlivých spoločností budú nasledujúce:

Trhová kapitalizácia Váha v indexe
X 100 000 0,33
Y 200 000 0,67
Celkom 300 000 1,00

Pozrime sa, ako ovplyvnia hodnotu Trhového indexu rovnaké relatívne zmeny oboch titulov (vo výške desiatich percent):

Pôvodná cena akcie Cena akcie
(X vzrastie o 10%)
Cena akcie
(Y vzrastie o 10%)
Trhová kapitalizácia
(pôvodne)
Trhová kapitalizácia
(X vzrastie o 10%)
Trhová kapitalizácia
(Y vzrastie o 10%)
X 100 110 100 100 000 110 000 100 000
Y 10 10 11 200 000 200 000 220 000
Celkom 300 000 310 000 320 000

Vidíme, že pokiaľ desaťpercentný nárast ceny akcie spoločnosti X vyvolal zvýšenie hodnoty celkovej trhovej kapitalizácie o desať tisíc dolárov, tak rovnaký relatívny rast ceny akcie spoločnosti Y zvýšil celkovú kapitalizáciu nášho fiktívneho trhu o dvadsať tisíc dolárov, čo je plne v súlade s tým, že spoločnosti s vyššou trhovou kapitalizáciou majú vyššiu váhu v trhovom indexe.

Týmto spôsobom je tvorená väčšina hlavných svetových indexov ako napríklad Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, NASDAQ Composite Index, Wilshire 5000 Index, London FTSE, indexy MSCI a rovnako aj český index PX 50.

2) Cenovo vážené indexy. Konštrukcia takoýchto indexov ignoruje celkovú trhovú kapitalizáciu spoločností a uspokojuje sa iba so znalosťou aktuálnych cien jednotlivých akcií. To v praxi znamená, že čím vyššia bude cena akcií spoločnosti, tým vyššiu váhu budú mať tieto akcie v indexe. Pre názornosť použijeme opät spoločnosti X a Y.

Cena akcie Váha v indexe
X 100 0,91
Y 10 0,09
Celkom 110 1,00

Je vidieť, že akcie spoločnosti X budú mať dominantný podiel v trhovom indexe, a to i napriek tomu, že ich trhová kapitalizácia je polovičná oproti trhovej kapitalizácii spoločnosti Y. Pozrime sa teraz, ako sa zmení trhový index, ak:
– vzrastie cena akcie spoločnosti X o 10 dolárov:

Pôvodná cena akcie Nové ceny akcie Pôvodná váha Nové váhy
X 100 110 0,91 0,92
Y 10 10 0,09 0,08
Celkom 110 120 1,00 1,00

– vzrastie cena akcie spoločnosti Y o 10 dolárov:

Pôvodná cena akcie Nové ceny akcie Pôvodná váha Nové váhy
X 100 100 0,91 0,83
Y 10 20 0,09 0,17
Celkom 110 120 1,00 1,00

Z tabuliek je viditeľné, že rovnaký absolútny rast ceny oboch akcií vyvolá v každom prípade rovnako zhodný rast trhového indexu. Jednoducho povedané, v cenovo váženom indexe nezáleží na tom, či vzrastie cena akcie nepatrne veľkej spoločnosti alebo obrieho kolosu, hoci by to bola najväčšia spoločnosť na svete (a je jedno akú formu prepočtu  použijeme). To samozrejme platí pre absolútny rast (v dolároch) a naviac musíme mať na pamäti, že s rastom ceny jednej akcie dochádza k rastu váhy tejto akcie v indexe.

Príkladom cenovo váženého indexu je jeden z najznámejších a najsledovanejších indexov vôbec, americký Dow Jones Industrial Average. Obdobným spôsobom je konštruovaný aj japonský Nikkei 225.

Nasledujúci príklad ukazuje, aký úplne odlišný výsledok môžu mať dve inak rovnaké udalosti, a to v závislosti na zvolenom spôsobe konštrukcie trhového indexu. Vyjdeme z rovnakej situácie ako v predchádzajúcich príkladoch:

Pôvodný stav Cena akcie Počet obchodovaných akcií Trhová kapitalizácia
X 100 1 000 100 000
Y 10 20 000 200 000
Celkom 110 21 000 300 000

Teraz predpokladajme, že cena akcie spoločnosti X vzrastie o 10 percent a zároveň cena akcie spoločnosti Y naopak o 10 percent poklesne. Zmenu cien akcií a trhových kapitalizácií oboch spoločností zobrazuje následujúca tabuľka:

Po zmene Cena akcie Počet obchodovaných akcií Trhová kapitalizácia
X 110 1 000 110 000
Y 9 20 000 180 000
Celkom 119 21 000 290 000

Zmeny cien oboch akcií samozrejme ovplyvní ich váhy v indexe. Zaujímavý pohľad poskytuje predovšetkým pohľad na posledný stĺpec:

Index zostavený na základe trhovej kapitalizácie Váha v indexe Váha v indexe po zmene Zmena indexu
X 0,33 0,38
Y 0,67 0,62
Celkom 1,00 1,00 -3,30%
Cenove vážený index Váha v indexe Váha v indexe po zmene Zmena indexu
X 0,91 0,92
Y 0,09 0,08
Celkom 1,00 1,00 +8,20%

Vidíme, že úplne rovnaké udalosti budú ovplyvňovať trhový index úplne odlišným spôsobom. Index zostavený podľa trhovej kapitalizácie poklesne ako dôsledok vyššie uvedených operácií, zatiaľ čo cenovo vážený index vzrastie! Dôvod je rovnaký ako v predchádzajúcich prípadoch. Pri indexe, kde váhami sú trhová kapitalizácia, preváži pokles ceny akcie (presnejšie pokles trhovej hodnoty) spoločnosti Y nad rastom ceny akcie spoločnosti X. Pri cenovo váženom indexe preváži naopak rast ceny akcie spoločnosti X, ktorej váha bola pôvodne niekoľkonásobne väčšia, nad poklesom ceny akcie spoločnosti Y s pôvodne nižšou váhou.

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